(February-early March): mild, then colder, possibly more active before returning toward normal
Above: forecast high temperatures (orange vs. normal high in red) for the Twin Cities: February 7 – March 9. The yellow line marks the difference between daily forecast highs & more general temperature trends past February 23.
Short summary:
Our very mild pattern continues likely into the middle of next week, right through mid month. Temperatures look to turn colder than normal overall for the final10 days of February. This period could also yield some increased storminess with the big temperature shifts/ tug of war. It’ll likely remain on the cooler side of normal into the start of March but return closer to normal (which by March 9th is 39 degrees!). The models hint at a potential active pattern to start March too.
Detailed summary discussion:
We are in our final meteorological winter month and it’s an interesting one for Minnesota as far as trends go. In recent years, February is one of the only months (along with April for similar reasons) to show a subtle cooling trend while every other month is warming rapidly. The reason appears to be driven by an increase in polar vortex disruptions that result in very cold air spilling south more often than in past trends. I’ve talked about this at length in previous articles so I won’t dive into the specific mechanisms in this outlook.
What will happen the rest of February into early March? This is perhaps one of the most risky times of year to try to make any predictions. It’s a naturally volatile time of year. We know March can be stormy and at some point in late February into early April the polar vortex is dealt a death blow (naturally as the arctic warms up with the return of sunshine) which can deliver a cold blast or a prolonged, ‘stuck’ cold pattern. That all depends on if the vortex fizzles out or is knocked off its axis like last year or in 2018. Those were both brutal Aprils filled with cold and snow.
While the end of the stratospheric polar vortex (which develops and persists every winter but affects us differently each year) is called a ‘final warming,’ major disruptions to it or sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) events that occur during what is still winter, don’t always happen. There’s lots of chatter and debate in the forecasting community about if one will occur in the second half of February. The models have gone literally back and forth. I suggest following Dr. Judah Cohen, one of the experts on the polar vortex and the interactions of climate change, the arctic and its effect on our midlatitude weather if you really want to get into it all:
In his recent blog post he discusses the temperature trend I discussed, of which you can see (above) Minnesota is a beneficiary of cooler Februarys and his ideas on this year’s vortex.
What we know for certain, is there’s A LOT of pressure being put on the polar vortex coming up. That pressure comes in the form of large scale blocking patterns that build up and can either split, break up, or push off the polar vortex. That movement can then translate to the lower atmosphere and send at least lobes of frigid air south if not massive cold outbreaks (think of those 10 very cold days in mid February 2021, the last time we had a major polar vortex disruption). Some who study the stratospheric polar vortex in depth (which is in itself its own beast in meteorology) are noting similar patterns shaping up that could lead to a break down of the vortex which would unleash cold.
Just because something happened a few other times doesn’t mean it will happen this time however and so far, the models are back and forth on whether these large blocking patterns will stretch or displace the vortex (which can still push down some cold weather but not the crazy stuff). At this point another stretched or displaced vortex seems the most likely scenario (which has happened a couple times this late autumn and winter) which will push in a colder pattern on and off for the second half of February into early March.
That brings us to possible snowfall/precipitation trends. All of these pattern changes for late February look to create a more active pattern. We’ve been in a lull for a few weeks at least, and that may change, at least temporarily in late February/early March. Whenever we get a ‘sloshing’ back and forth of the air masses, inevitably the storm track is shifting back and forth and that can put Minnesota back in the line of fire for storms. This time of year also can lead to some pretty powerful jet streams as cold air lingers north but things are starting to heat back up south.
Through mid February at least, the area of highest activity (above normal precipitation looks to be mainly to our southeast:
Again, this looks to shift some north or least back and forth more in the final days of February and into early March. Might February go out like a lion and March go in like one? Time will tell, but it does least look cooler to help counter some of this very warm air we’ve seen so far in February.
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