It’s a pretty rare thing to not drop below zero in the Twin Cities in January but so far 2023 is doing just that. Only three other times since the 1873 records began have we not dropped subzero: 2021, 2006, and 1990. Prior to 1990 we’ve never had a January without subzero temperatures.
Even the ‘ice box of the nation,’ International Falls, has only been below zero twice this month of January. That’s the least ever for them. If they don’t get at least 6 more before January 31 it will be a new record minimum number.
The normal number (1991-2020 average) of nights below zero for International Falls in January is 18. For the Twin Cities it’s half that at 9. Both of these figures have decreased over the decades but more so for the north woods, which is consistent with Minnesota’s warming trends: the colder parts are warming fastest.
Take a look at the decreasing trends for both locations:
In the Twin Cities we’ve seen the average number of subzero nights drop from about 13 to 9 in the overall full record, but the drop was more dramatic from the 1970s when it was 18.
In International Falls it’s even more dramatic and in a shorter time span. The average has dropped from 24 to 16.
Of course it’s been a very mild January this year. January temperatures are averaging 8.3 degrees above normal in the Twin Cities, which if we kept up this pace would put us in the top 10. If we plug in forecast numbers (we do see some last minute cold ahead) for the rest of the month we drop to the 19th warmest January (150 years).
In International Falls, the temperatures are averaging a whopping 13.7 degrees warmer than normal! At this point, it’s the warmest January on record for International Falls going back to 1947. The list below is the current ranking, which will likely change after next week.
You’ll notice, 10 of those top 18 spots are all just since the year 2000.
Any cold ahead?
So will we see some last minute cold this month? A chunk of pretty cold air does look to wander into Minnesota by the end of next week in the final few days of January. For International Falls it appears likely they’ll see at least a few nights drop below zero before the month ends. Here’s a look at the blend of models forecast, showing four nights below zero, which would bring the total up to 6 then, still a record minimum number.
In the Twin Cities, the blend of models shows two for us:
So while we have huge temperature anomalies (differences from normal) for most of Minnesota (the exception is far western Minnesota), we’ll likely see things average out just a bit with some cold in the final days, but it’ still likely to be a top 5 warmest January for International Falls and certainly in the top 25 (out of 150) for the Twin Cities.
It certainly continues to be a very interesting and wild winter 2022-2023.
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