(Updates discontinued until Spring 2022)
DROUGHT Conditions Improve in Western Minnesota, DRY in the East
The story over the last two weeks is the significant rains in the west, but not so here in eastern Minnesota. Below is an animated GIF of the drought monitor from two weeks ago & this week. 38% of Minnesota now is out of drought, mainly in the southwest. Southeast Minnesota is BACK in the abnormally dry category, after being pulled out in September.
A similar story can be found in the Twin Cities metro area. I discussed this in the last couple drought updates (all posted below in a chronological thread so you can track the progress since late summer). We were at just over 6" behind for year to date rainfall in early August, then beneficial rains wiped out a large part of that and we were just 3" behind. Fast forward through much of September & October, where we've had little significant rain and too infrequent, and we're back to about -5.50" behind.
We picked up just over 3/4" of rainfall Wednesday night into Thursday (Oct 27-28), that -5.50" deficit *includes* that figure. The problem, as I've laid out before, is that every day that goes by without rain, adds to the deficit, so when we get very infrequent rains like this: they need to be BIG (1"+). While rain at this time of year doesn't help crops/farmers, it IS important for our trees and lake/river levels, especially heading into winter, which is essentially a long, cold drought. Contrary to belief, unlike the Sierra Nevada, for example, snow in Minnesota really doesn't help much, except some lakes & rivers. The snow largely evaporates and when it does melt, it runs across frozen ground into streams/rivers/lakes and not into the ground.
Below: Oct 27-28 rainfall.
The map below shows rainfall anomalies (difference from normal) over the past 30 days. It tells the story of why things improved in western MN but not so, or even worsened here in the eastern parts of the state.
Below: October 2021 rainfall anomalies.
And here's why we're still abnormally dry or in drought for many areas. The map below shows the 365 day rainfall deficits. Most of the state is still in a rainfall hole when we look at the past 365 days.
Below: 365 day rainfall anomalies.
The big news in the west was some BIG rains the last couple weeks in Northern California & the Pacific Northwest. They are SO far behind that there was very little change, but parts of Northern California were taken out of 'exceptional' drought into 'extreme' drought (oh boy!).
Above: U.S. drought monitor: still VERY dry in the west.
DROUGHT UPDATE: October 28 Drought Conditions Improve in Northwest Minnesota :
As I continue to update this ongoing drought, I'll now leave previous posts in the thread below (newest here and older as you scroll, etc.), that way the most significant changes (like those we had in mid September) will remain here to see. We're heading into a time of year where only real significant precipitation alters the drought conditions. That scenario occurred in northwest Minnesota- the only part of the state to see changes in the drought status.
Below: Latest drought monitor for October 14th.
Below: An animated GIF showing last week & this week's drought monitor for comparison:
A few people have messaged me asking why they're still in drought but the grass is greener? Well, the big thing driving that would be the fact the sun is MUCH weaker now & temps are cooler overall (at least half the day- at night). This contributes to much less evaporation (think of your lawn scorched in the sun quickly in summer). If you were to dig deep, you'd find dry dirt. The overall year to date, or 365 day (going back to last October 2020) tells the bigger, soil & ground water story (& explains your lake levels).
While we made GREAT progress in August & early September, at least in the metro, we've slipped into a dry pattern again. We went from a 6.30" deficit in early August to 'just' -2.79" after Labor Day, but now we're back to nearly -6" below. This animation shows that:
The progress made in the last 7 days was in northwest Minnesota, which saw enough significant moisture to eat away at some severe drought.
The map below says it all for the precipitation patterns lately. Northwest MN, which was the worst area, has gotten all the rain, while we have a virtual dry hole right over the metro. Hence, we're back to substantial deficits, but the northwest parts of the state have made progress.
DROUGHT UPDATE from Thursday, October 7th:
Again this week, the drought monitor is unchanged. This is two weeks of little or no change. As I discussed last week, mostly the sun isn't as strong and doesn't scorch things like in summer, but also we had some precipitation to counter things also.
This biggest even of the last 7 days was the Friday-Saturday rainfall that left the MSP airport with only 0.26" but a heavy swath fell in the central, northern part of the state, into the northern suburbs & northwest Wisconsin.
Below: 7 day precipitation totals (Sept 30-Oct 7).
Below: A tighter, metro-centered, view.
Below: latest Minnesota drought monitor (again, unchanged from last week)
DROUGHT UPDATE from Thursday, September 30th:
Drought conditions are almost totally unchanged from a week ago. This is because we've gotten little to no rain and with warm, sunny, dry conditions, our deficits have grown a bit (but luckily without summer sun, things don't dry quite as fast). Because of this, I'm only making a brief update here & leaving last week's updated information below since it still highlights the most significant drought news of the past month.
Below: Drought Monitor for September 30 (almost exactly the same as last week's)
September brought mixed news. We of course had some good rains that really helped central & northern Minnesota but overall, in parts of the state, we were behind for the month's rainfall as illustrated in the September rainfall deficit map below:
Above: Rainfall anomalies for September.
In fact, while it seemed southeastern Minnesota & Wisconsin got all the rain in August, in September they took the month off & became dry while central & northeastern Minnesota go the bulk of surplus rain.
Of course the last week of very warm (10° to 20° above normal) , dry, sunny weather is a bit troubling if we don't get some significant rainfall soon. Stay tuned on that.
DROUGHT UPDATE from Thursday, September 23rd:
Some significant changes in the drought conditions across Minnesota over the last 7 days! Two images below I post an animated GIF outlying this well comparing last week & this week's drought monitors.
Of note: the most extreme, exceptional drought category disappears from northwest Minnesota finally. Severe drought improved to moderate drought across much of central Minnesota and overall southern Minnesota is looking pretty good, just abnormally dry for most.
Above: September 23 drought monitor.
Below: a GIF showing last week & this week: not the big improvements!
A month ago 96% of Minnesota was in drought, today, that's at 76%. That's a big change in just four or so weeks.
When looking at the 365 deficits, we still see major need for improvement across northern Minnesota that will just frankly take many months to make up.
Below: Comparing 365 day rainfall deficits from last week to this week.
Quite obviously the rains of the past week, more specifically the heavy soaking in central Minnesota up to Duluth made a HUGE difference. Below is the 7 day rainfall total and it's very clear to see why there was so much improvement in central & northern Minnesota.
Below: 7 day total rainfall (Sep 16-23).
If we can continue to have an active fall and not slip into prolonged dry spells (like I fear we may these next 7-10 days), we can continue to improve the drought. Combine that with a snowy winter & wet spring, we could be out of it. Typically, however, drought conditions linger into the following year after a drought as severe as this one was and over so much of the state.
Below: U.S. drought monitor (September 23).
-Meteorologist, Sven Sundgaard
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