FEBRUARY 2022 OUTLOOK

Jan 31, 20223 min read

Updated: Feb 1, 2022

JANUARY was a cold month- for a rare change! In fact, it was the coldest since 2014, eight years ago. I touched on how this level of cold in January has become now just a once in a decade event, so in theory, we're set for a while. A January like 2022 used to be a much more common (once in 2 or 3 years) occurrence. By changing the dial on our climate just 1° to 2° we've made that extent of cold FOUR times less likely.

December was a mild month at +2° above normal, BUT, it did have one big storm (well, before those tornadoes). So what does February bring?

I think February will see a transition from a very similar (chilly) pattern of January toward normalcy. I discussed in my previous month's (JANUARY) forecast how the pattern of cold which was over Siberia, then migrated into Alaska and the Canadian west would settle into central North America. That's what happened. This pattern will make its turn around and retreat through this month.

While we've been cold, most of Siberia, Northern Europe, Asia has been rather mild. Below are temperature anomalies (diff. from normal) across the northern hemisphere:

January was marked by short, but frigid cold snaps that kept the average temperature down, but did NOT see prolonged cold outbreaks (like February last year) more typical of a 'polar vortex' winter. That's because this winter, at least so far, we've seen 'stretched polar vortex' events rather than disruptions of displacement of it. That means cold lobes reach us, but they're passing through rather than lingering. When the vortex is knocked off the North Pole it descends south and has nowhere to go and just meanders. This year's polar vortex is strong, but so are the warm pockets pushing on its sides, stretching it out.

Forecast animation of the polar vortex for Feb. 1-9th, 2022:

Note two things in the animation above. There are two areas of warmth that alternate trying to push the polar vortex. Because we have a pretty strong one, the net effect is that it stretches. When it stretches & becomes elongated, someone, somewhere gets a lobe of cold, but it passes through rather than sticks around. That pattern will likely continue for much of February but I think the lobes will start to affect the other side of the hemisphere increasingly more, allowing us to see fewer arctic cold snaps.

The long range models meanwhile are in general agreement on a chilly February too. Here's a sampling of some.

The tricky part of any forecast, but especially longer range forecasts, is always precipitation. It is the final variable out of many, many calculations and multiplications so it has the most room for error.

I think, much like January, snowfall overall will be near normal or below because of the chillier pattern. I do see some possibility of getting into a more active pattern perhaps toward the end of the month that could set us up going into March.

Here's a general break down of temperatures (as compared to the detailed chart at the top of the page): overall, expect a colder than normal February by a few degrees, but not as much has January was (about 5.5 degrees colder than normal):