The polar bears are out hunting on the ice of Hudson Bay in full force at this time of year. Below are positions of satellite collared females updated March 25th:
This is an important time of year as mother's with newborn cubs are emerging right now. They were born about 3 months ago and they've been using up all of mom's fat reserves nursing on her. Mama polar bear is definitely hungry and it's critical she consume enough calories in these next 90 to 120 days. She already has a much shorter season compared to the other adult bears and juveniles that have been out since December. Luckily, seal pups are born in May and it's a buffet for bears (not so pleasant when you think of the baby seal pups, but that's nature)...
Here's a look at ice from last season. As you can see, Hudson Bay is pretty much 95% ice covered from late December through the month of April. May begins a slow break up process with it happening more rapidly in June. The break up date is often defined by 50% ice coverage, which since 2000 has averaged around June 26th, with 5% (recall that many bears remain on any bit of ice hunting until the 5% mar) ice cover reached by July 30th.
Last year the break up started fast in June, bringing ice cover levels below the modern (2001-2021) average, but then slowed thanks to cooler weather late June into early July. Most of July saw average ice conditions which helped many bears hunt to at least average levels. Had the break up continued on pace from June, it would have been a bad end of season.
March this year saw mixed temperatures. The area around Churchill in southwest Hudson Bay was below normal, but northern and eastern areas were quite warm.
For winter overall (Dec 1 - Feb 28), temperatures were mixed as well. The big take away is that there wasn't crazy warmth this winter or crazy cold (which almost never happens anymore), so considering our warming world, that's kind of 'good news.'
We'll see what spring brings for temperatures. Based on the data I've analyzed, June weather is the most critical for the bears: temperatures, and wind primarily. It's a VERY important month for females with cubs, especially newborn, to hunt. A rapid break up is bad news. Despite polar bears leaving the ice about on average last year, the faster break up in June was not good. Remember when I refer to 'average' I'm talking about the modern average since 2000, which is worse than the the 1970s, 1980s baseline of course.
Recall that this year was mixed news for ice formation too. While it got cold fast the week before and during our visit, this allowed ice to develop at a near normal pace, it then slowed a lot. The actual critical amount of ice cover reached was later than average but not as horribly late as the 2021 season.
I'm very concerned with the big drop in the population from 2016 to 2022, and the few bear cubs we saw last year compared to when I was there in 2015. They really need multiple consecutive 'good' years to not cause some population crashes. Fingers crossed for a continued cold, miserable spring... I know it's not fun, but often our weather compared to normal is similar to theirs.
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