December was a wild month of overall mild temperatures but also one big snowstorm & our first ever recorded tornadoes. What will January bring?
If you want to just 'cut to the chase,' I have a 2 minute video summary below as well as a forecast (vs. normal) high temperature chart and snowfall forecast graphics below that, then a much deeper dive...
2-minute Video Summary:
January temperature forecast (highs in blue) versus normal highs (orange):
January snowfall forecast versus normal:
Now the DETAILS...
All indications are that January's pattern will look different than what we've seen the last several weeks. On my Friday, December 31s weather video, I talked about how the cold pattern that started in Siberia in October, migrated to Alaska in November and in western Canada by December migrated east.
Below you can see this:
It might mean, that finally our consecutive streak of warm months (10) may end? February was the ONLY month in 2021 to be colder than normal. We are due for some cold and January may finally bring it, but just how cold?
Well, first we have to define what's 'normal.'
In the old days (prior to 1900) the average temperature for January was 12.0° F, the most recent decades, that's up to 16.1° (this is averaging highs & lows).
It's not common that ALL the models agree generally in the longer term, for January 2022, they do:
While the models all agree on colder than normal conditions for Minnesota in January, they do not agree on how cold. You can see the general pattern though is like what I show in the video above: a migration of the blue/green (colder than normal temps) in the west, spreading more into the north central U.S., which is exactly what's been happening as of late.
The 'average' of the models is a January that would be -4.8° F below normal (11.3° F average). That would make for the coldest January since 2014 (remember that infamous polar vortex winter) when the average temperature was a frigid 8.0° F. That January was the coldest since 1994.
I find it hard to believe that this January will be *that* cold. The thing to watch will be the polar vortex. When the polar vortex is STRONG (like it is thus far this year) the core of cold air is kept more or less bottled up toward the pole. What's happened this past weekend & overall later this week, is a 'squeeze' or stretching of the polar vortex (illustrated below) due to an unusual ridge of warmth deep northward into eastern Siberia & western Alaska.
Below: A stretched/squeezed polar vortex due to a push of heat out of the North Pacific.
As one of those lobes of the polar vortex gets closer, we see cold snaps: but not anything too crazy for our normal winter weather. A strong vortex, like a good rubber band, bounces back & remains largely intact and back toward the North Pole. A weak one, will break apart or fall apart all together: that's when we see unusually cold arctic air plunge far south: like in Texas last February. That created a prolonged 2 week cold snap and many hours subzero for us. I don't think that happens in January. I think we'll see more 'normal' cold snaps on & off with breaks, but enough to keep the overall average temperature for the month below the normal (1991-2021 normal).
It's worth noting, to go back to my first couple paragraphs, that if we end up -4° F below normal, that would actually just make for a normal, historic January (1873-1902 average). That's why I wanted to define 'normal' in the beginning. We use normals, based on the most recent 3 decades (a generation) to give a picture of the most modern climate, that is warmer because of climate change.
It does appear we could be in for a nice mid-month warmup, or 'January thaw.' I think at least a few days in the 30s or even 40s are possible late in the 2nd week or 3rd week of the month.
It does then appear that another arctic blast will move in behind that one. So: you get a picture of how the month could average out... a cold week, a warm week, and a cold week, so that the average is colder.
As far as snowfall is concerned: that's always the trickiest variable. If we are cold, that would tend to keep the storm tracks south of us and give us only light (clipper type) snowfalls. BUT, if we can get enough of a roller coaster in the temperature pattern to line up the storm track at least a couple times over us, we could get one significant snow to push us at least to normal January snowfall amounts. Normal snowfall in January is 10.6". I think we'll probably stay just under that, but you never know. One big snow (like we had in December) can throw that all off, where as with temperatures: 1 or 2 cold or warm days can get averaged out in a 30 or 31 day month.
So again, to recap, big picture: plan on a CHILLY January. I don't think it'll be as cold as some of the models, but definitely our coldest in since 2019 or perhaps even 2014 (but not nearly *that* cold). It will get our attention because we're used to warmer Januarys overall. Snowfall will probably be less exciting than it was in December when we had a few big storms at least in parts of Minnesota as we'll be overall in a cold pattern, pushing those big snows farther south into Nebraska, Iowa, Missouri, Illinois.
Happy Winter & 2022!
- Meteorologist Sven Sundgaard
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