February marked our 2nd consecutive month of colder than normal temperatures, something that hasn't happened since the fall of 2020. What shall March bring? This will be a more difficult month to forecast. Not only because the overall patterns change naturally from winter to spring but also because there's a lot of question as to what the polar vortex will do this season as it naturally dies with the return of sunlight to the arctic.
Rather than forecast a warm month & disappoint you all (by the realization that it'll be chilly), I'm forecasting another cooler than normal month, which is always tough in early spring of course. Running all the models and factors I look at in forecasting a 30 day temperature trend I come up with 76% chances of a cooler than normal March. If we manage three consecutive colder than normal months, that's quite a feat lately. We last did that in 2019.
I'm forecasting a March that will be about -4.9 degrees below normal. For perspective: January averaged -5.5 degrees below normal, February will end up about -6.5 degrees colder than normal. I do think we'll hit 50 at least a couple times, but 60 might be harder to come by. In a normal March, the first 60 comes sometime in the first half of the month.
The other variable influencing March will be the moderate La Nina pattern we've had through the winter. Climatologist, Dr. Brian Brettschneider who lives in Anchorage, Alaska, put together these illuminating maps showing temperature and precipitation patterns in moderate to strong La Nina years. He looked at 17 strong to moderate La Ninas and there are some pretty strong correlations for Minnesota in March.
Only 29% of the time do we see above normal temperatures in a March with a moderate to strong La Nina. There's an even stronger correlation for precipitation. Only 11% of the time do we see a March with above normal precipitation, so snow-lovers, or those hoping for relief from the ongoing drought, this isn't great news.
The models are somewhat mixed on what they think will happen with precipitation. I'm leaning toward the drier ones combined with the strong La Nina correlation.
Below is my forecast for March snowfall. I'm forecasting 6-7" of total snowfall, normal is 8.7".
Now, in case you're curious, the official forecast from the Climate Prediction Center still calls for a mild March (but their latest forecast is 10 days old). I have a feeling they'll be changing this however as things play out. Their forecast was based on models from a month ago that were all forecasting a mild March. To be sure, the European model was forecasting a rather mild march but as time has progressed has flipped.
What about spring overall? I think we'll average out to a pretty normal spring, which means that April & May may be slightly above normal to make up for a cool start to it in March.
Comments