Remember that crazy hail storm on August 11 that cut right through the most populated areas of the Twin Cities? Well, that qualified as a billion dollar disaster. NOAA estimates it was a $1.1 billion dollar price tag.
Of course what pushed up the price tag was the fact that the storm cut through the most populated part of Minnesota damaging roofs and cars pretty easily.
(Above: radar imagery at 5pm, just before the hail core hit Minneapolis on August 11, 2023)
The Twin Cities hail storm was just one of 23 billion dollar disasters in the United States this year so far. That’s a record and we still have three and a half months to go, including half of the Atlantic hurricane season.
You’ll note in the graphic above that Hurricane Idalia, which actually spared more populated areas of Florida, was also one of the billion dollar disasters. Any other hurricane that makes landfall in the U.S. is almost certain to create another if it were to occur.
2023 is already setting a record with its 23 billion dollar disasters. This is how it stacks up against previous record years:
These figures are adjusted for inflation in case you’re curious if we’re comparing apples and oranges to previous decades. Undoubtedly, climate change is playing a role in the increase in extreme weather and disasters overall.
The hail storm in Minnesota specifically is difficult to tie to climate change but the summer heat is an easy climate change link. Climate Central’s ‘Climate Shift Index’ which is a form of rapid attribution for climate change looks at historical data and high temperatures now to find the link to climate warming.
The above map shows the number of days with a CSI index of 2 or higher, which means that climate change made extreme high temperatures at least twice as likely.
The Texas and Arizona heat waves really stand out but Minnesota had its share too. In the Twin Cities we had quite a few days where the finger prints of climate change were all over the high temperatures, thus we ended up with our fifth hottest summer (out of 150 years) on record. This came after 2021 took the #1 spot which is quite remarkable.
Mankato has a similar looking chart:
Duluth, thanks to modifying forces of Lake Superior had the least impact from climate change on high temperature extremes this year. While Lake Superior is undoubtedly warming, it’s still chilly and still acts as check and balance on the heat budget of its environs.
Duluth’s record high on September 3 is not included in the cut off of this chart, but we can look back and see that the while it was hottest in central and southern Minnesota, the fact that northern Minnesota saw nearly similar readings was very unusual.
The climate shift index for Duluth and points north show that climate change made those readings in the 90s (or even 102 in Brainerd) a whopping THREE to FIVE times more likely. Even in the Twin Cities, our high in the upper 90s was made at least twice as likely with the warming we’ve seen in recent decades.
So, while tying one specific hail event in Minnesota in August to climate change is difficult, the overall pattern and trend of hotter temperatures and extreme weather is not. Climate change is real and making extremes much more likely.
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