ANOTHER round of storms is possible Sunday evening into the overnight. Currently (as of 12pm Sunday) we still have A LOT of low clouds keeping day-time heating limited. We should see increasing peeks of sun by mid afternoon, but will it be enough in time for severe potential?
Scattered storms will be likely but they could be elevated in nature (meaning they develop higher up and therefor have a lower tornado/severe risk). It appears most likely the severe risk is north central/northwest Minnesota where the cap (warm air in mid layers) is weaker and therefor storms can be more surface based - with a higher severe, tornado risk.
I think the storm prediction center's slight risk area (yellow above) includes the Twin Cities out of an abundance of caution- in case we DO see enough sun/energy and the CAP weakens.
The real clue is their tornado risk (brown area below). This is clearly the area that will see the best chance of things coming all together.
HERE's a good estimation of where the cap (below) is at time of storm development (around 5pm). It's along the northern edge of this CAP that the best chance of severe storms will develop. Within the CAP area (including the Twin Cities) the best chance will come later in the evening as storms already fill in & are able to move southeast but likely become less severe as they progress.
As I posted last night, here are two models side by side at the same time frames. Just like yesterday, the NAM model (right) continues to be most bullish with storm development further southeast and earlier than the HRRR model.
So again, here's a bullet-point summary:
* Storms WILL develop northwest Minnesota late afternoon-early evening.
* THOSE initial storms have the best chance of being severe (isolated tornadoes, large hail, high wind gusts of 60mph+) possible.
* Storms COULD develop further south into the Twin Cities and POSSIBLY be severe, IF:
- the CAP weakens
- with MORE sunshine, heating us up more
- OR severe storms are able to maintain their strength
* IF storms can maintain their strength into the Twin Cities, it's most likely to be a
- LARGe hail threat
- Isolated high wind gusts (60 mph+) threat
What happens over the afternoon will be key to severe potential. If we stay too cloudy, the risk really drops in the Twin Cities. Either way, we'll see SOME storms late in the evening: but they may not be severe.... STAY TUNED!
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