Our next system will be a mix of wet snow, rain, etc. for southern Minnesota late Sunday into Monday. Accumulations are tricky this time of year: requiring heavy bursts of snow by day or snow that falls at night.
Take this above example. This is one computer model with three fairly different outcomes. In the middle of winter we have to worry about the ratio of snow to water- which is a forecasting challenge in itself, but at this time of year we have a couple more fun hurdles:
* Temperatures (usually above freezing by day)
* Sun angle: (yep even when it's cloudy, increasingly strong sun gets through the clouds!)
Both of these factors will inhibit daytime snowfall accumulation in southern Minnesota. So you'll see in the above example: the 'normal' snow is a 10:1 ratio - assuming snow can just freely pile up (think of a nice 20 degree Jan/Feb day). The 'accounting for temps' scenario calculates what the ratio of snow to water will be - which is higher for colder temps, lower for warmer temps but cannot take into account warm ground & March sun angle.
ALL of that said... we do look to have a period of evening snow (or rain showers) Sunday evening that could therefor accumulate, so I do think we could get an inch or so in the Twin Cities:
The tricky factor additionally will be that we'll be right on the rain/snow line in the Twin Cities. This forecast could either end up with a 'surprise' 2" of slush or zero... gotta love spring in Minnesota!
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