November is going out like a lion or at least like winter! The models continue to narrow in on a swath of snow tracking through southeastern Minnesota on Tuesday into early Wednesday, the last hours of November.
The main upper level wave is still in the Pacific, riding in from the northwest.
Snow showers will develop early on Tuesday and fall through the day into the overnight Tuesday night. The period of the heaviest snowfall looks to be from the mid morning into the early evening Tuesday. 'Forecast radar' with timing is below:
There of course, are still variations in the models. For the Twin Cities, the range is still from about 2 to 7 inches of possible snowfall. The models generally agree on the heaviest axis of snow being mainly just southeast of the Twin Cities with a sharp cut off from rain to snow between the south metro and southeast Minnesota.
If we average the models together we get a more clear picture of the 'consensus.'
Here's a wider statewide view including western Wisconsin:
Looking at all the models, from a probabilistic view, the most likely range is about 2 to 4 inches for the Twin Cities but there will be a northwest to southeast gradient. Some southeast suburbs could see 4 to 7 inches while northwest suburbs see just 1 or 2 inches.
(Above: probabilities of more than or less than each inch category for MSP specifically)
We do see some colder air coming in behind the storm but it may not be as severe or as prolonged as what some of the models were painting last week for late this up coming week.
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