We're still on track to receive some fresh snow but the track and amounts are anything but settled yet. As we now are closer to the event, we have a couple more models to add to the pile: about 10 in total and there are some variations that could have impacts on the totals.
The snow will start late Monday night after some snow showers in northern Minnesota during the day Monday (separate from this system ahead). You can see that southeast Minnesota does see some rain and a mix that will cut back on snow totals there.
The small wrench in the forecast is that a couple of models now are shifting north and northwest with the low track which could put the southeast metro even in a rain/mix.
Considering that we're 32 hours away from the snow starting, 165 mile differences in the track is significant and makes this a lower confidence forecast. Even the National Weather Service is giving this 'low to moderate' forecast confidence.
Here are the 10 different model scenarios:
While most of the models have the Twin Cities on the northern edge of the bulk of the snow, a couple models are farther north and have us on the southern edge of the snow instead. While this isn't a 'monster' storm, it does have the potential to produce some 5"-7" amounts and so tracking where the heavy band sets up will be key. A widespread 1"-3" is what most will see but that heavier band will be a game changer.
Here are the latest probabilities by the inch for MSP specifically: the most probable range is in that 2" to 3" range but again we gotta see where the narrow heavy band sets up.
Here are the latest blended model forecasts (averaging essentially many of the models into a consensus):
The National Weather Service has issued a Winter Storm Watch for the areas they think will see the likely potential for 6"+:
They're favoring the models that are a bit more north in track + the added enhancement from Lake Superior on the south shore in northern Wisconsin.
I will post some updated models in the morning- hopefully the straggler models come into some agreement! This storm is still just reaching the Pacific coast of western Canada and the northwest U.S..
We're still looking for colder air sliding in Wednesday but may be back above freezing already Friday:
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