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NOVEMBER forecast [archived for verification]....
OCTOBER WAS YET ANOTHER WARM MONTH, WHAT FOR NOVEMBER?
11/01/2021
October finished the 9th warmest and our warmest October in 58 years! Quite the feat. October is an outlier where no year since 2000 is in the top 10 spot (until now). Now we transition into November & it's a month that starts to show signs of our winter pattern.
Above: Temperature anomalies (difference from normal) for October and forecast (from the European model) for November.
While I don't see November being as warm relative to normal as October (+6.7° F from the normal), it should still be slightly on the milder side. I would anticipate by just 1° or 2°. There are some indications that the pattern that kept us warm in October will still be influencing our November weather, but to a lesser extent. The above comparison shows this, relatively: cooler than normal conditions on the west coast into Alaska, while the central and eastern U.S. was much warmer than normal. The warmest conditions (relative to normal) were up around Hudson Bay into the Canadian Arctic. This strong blocking pattern seems to persist into November.
So what does all this mean? If you're looking for a day by day breakdown for the month- you won't find that in any serious long range forecast (I know there are day by day long range forecasts out there but I hope you've also noticed they're very inaccurate & volatile).
The normal high on November 1 starts at 48° and by month's end is just 35°. I'd expect the first half of the month will be mainly in the 50s with some 40s and even a 60° or two. The second half of the month we can expect to be mostly in the 30s & 40s, maybe a 50°.
Precipitation gets to be the tricky part. Most of the long range models are a mix of scenarios. Given that we're still in a drought and October offered no changes in that regard, I would anticipate November to be below normal for precipitation as well. The normal precipitation is 1.77" and of course much of that (about a third) can fall as snow. 6.7" is the normal snowfall for the month. Due to the slightly milder then normal conditions we can expect that snow will be below normal, maybe even well below with the drought conditions. With all of that said, most of the models do indicate an increased chance of snowfall (accumulating) mid month. That of course doesn't mean it sticks around nor that it will be a big event.
The other thing to watch this month are signs of the winter pattern that might set up. In the forecasting world, much is being made of what the polar vortex may do. Models have hinted at an early season disruption, which would spill cold into Europe or North America. Stay tuned! I will be talking more about what winter may bring in the weeks ahead.
OCTOBER forecast
WARM SEPTEMBER RE-CAP & OCTOBER FORECAST, IMPLICATIONS.
September 30, 2021 (Archived for your fact-checking)
ABOVE: October forecast from the [long-range] Canadian Model.
Welcome to October, Almost. Now What? :
September ends yet another very warm month. I hate to sound like a broken record, but it was VERY warm. The pattern has been basically the same since June 1. Cool/wet in the Deep South, hot/dry in the west & upper midwest. The northeast has been more complicated: hot/cool/stormy occasionally.
There is NO reason to believe October will bring any significant change yet- other than seasonal. By seasonal I mean, clearly it will be cooler than September because daylight is weakening & decreasing across the whole northern hemisphere obviously, BUT there's still A LOT of surplus heat in the hemisphere to radiate/circulate/absorb away.
Below: September (top) versus the past 4 month pattern (bottom): note how similar.
Thursday ended a three day streak of 80s, which is not common this late in the season. In fact, you have to go back to 2011. That was the last Autumn (& a ridiculously warm October) we had anywhere near this kind of heat 'wave' this late & it was considerably worse. There were 8 days consecutive in October that were 80°+!
September will end up likely the 16th warmest on record (of 149 years). It so happens that September is our second fastest warming month in the climate change realm. December is first. In fact, of the top 20 Septembers, 9 are just since 2000!
Below: September stats.
It can be hard for the average person to visualize 4.8° above normal. It's very significant. Anything more than 1° above generally is a pretty warm margin. For September this year it basically translated this way: normal September high temps are in the 60s & 70s, with obviously a few 80s, maybe even a day in the 50s. This year, that pushed the scale up: highs were mainly in the 70s & 80s. With one 90° day.
So, what's this all mean for October? I think it will be another rather mild month. Some of our long term models agree also.
Below: CFS model forecast for October (+3.0° C or +5.4° F)
Now, to be fair, this model is forecasting the warmest scenario of the models but it also makes more sense given the pattern.
I ran the numbers for Octobers that were +3°F, +4°F, and +5°F to see what impact that had on the first frost in the Twin Cities, which normally happens around October 11th. Most suburbs see their first frost on average 5 days earlier on the edge of the urban heat island.
Below: First Frost scenarios with warm Octobers.
So what kind of temperature spread do we get in an October that is that mild? We'll likely get an October that's mainly in the 60s with some 70s, instead of the more typical 50s, 60s and even some 40s. Also, don't count on an October blizzard this year either.
Above: total rainfall Thursday night into Saturday morning (blend of models).
This year seems VERY likely to be a year of a late frost. Possibly even later than the October 22nd scenario at +5°F above normal October. All of this comes with the caveat that eventually the pattern will switch to something different. The planet is still warm, and climate change is a thing, but maybe we won't be as ridiculously above normal at some point when the winds of the jet streams shift. The trends however are for warmer falls as summer heat lingers and that's affecting the start of winters. Hence, December is our fastest warming month. One of the curious things in our new 30 year normals however are that February & April are slightly cooler (the only months to do so). This seems to capture the fact that winters are getting a later start & that the polar vortex is disrupted more (something that some researchers think is a climate change link). Ironically when the polar vortex is disrupted, even in a warmer world, it plunges air way farther south than it would normally be (think of Texas this past February). We've had Februarys in the 60s in the last few years and brutally cold ones too. This all lines up with a late winter in turmoil, possibly a result of climate change dynamics.
Below: Rainfall Thursday night into early Saturday.
Oh yes, we also have some rain, that's already been falling in western Minnesota, gradually moving eastward overnight. Heaviest rainfall totals will be from the Thursday-Thursday night downpours west. Most of the Twin Cities will end up with under 1/2" and behind it cooler temps, in the low 70s, still above normal, but cooler.
Extended forecast:
The LATEST DROUGHT UPDATE is **HERE**. Updated on September 30th. Next update is October 7th (evening).
---Meteorologist Sven Sundgaard
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